View Full Version : Economics question


randy.mcdonald@gmail.com
02-13-2008, 11:57 PM
For a setting that I'm interested in exploring

It's the standard sort of space opera setting, including a FTL drive
and the sort of inexpensive space access that makes interplanetary
trade in manufactured goods and even raw materials possible. A
standard semi-isolationist colony mission ventures to an area far from
the main sphere of human civilization and other non-human
civilizations. Over the next fifty years, the colony missions becomes
a self-sufficient, if small, interstellar civilization of a half-dozen
worlds and a quarter-million people.

At this point, random explorers happen upon a lost colony. It's a
standard lost colony, descended from an early colony mission that
succeeded in depositing its colonists but failed to sustain a
technological civilization. In the centuries since, the colonists have
gradually built a mature steady-state planetary economy, with
centuries of accumulated capital and little inclination to spend it,
although technology remains a good century behind that available to
the more recent colonists.

What happens next?

The only thing preventing the worlds established by the recent colony
mission from being satellitized would be some sort of political
decision by both parties. If the two parties are going to create a
joint economy, there is going to have to be some sort of trade and, as
our contemporary world demonstrates, it is very difficult to sustain a
free trade regime without labour mobility.

The main advantage to the the older colony would probably be access to
more advanced technology. The younger colony could profit from exports
of their technology and perhaps objects like novelty goods, or some
high-value-added products. Of particular interest might be the
availability of easy credit. Perhaps the newer colonies might have an
economic profile a bit like that of the Baltic States, with cheap
foreign credit subsidizing domestic consumption unsustainably?

Is there anything I'm missing here?

Crown-Horned Snorkack
02-14-2008, 10:27 AM
On 14 veebr, 06:57, randy.mcdon...@gmail.com wrote:
> For a setting that I'm interested in exploring
>
> It's the standard sort of space opera setting, including a FTL drive
> and the sort of inexpensive space access that makes interplanetary
> trade in manufactured goods and even raw materials possible. A
> standard semi-isolationist

What is "standard semi-isolationist", compared to "nonstandard semi-
isolationist", "fully isolationist" and "non-isolationist"?

colony mission ventures to an area far from
> the main sphere of human civilization and other non-human
> civilizations. Over the next fifty years, the colony missions becomes
> a self-sufficient, if small, interstellar civilization of a half-dozen
> worlds and a quarter-million people.
>
In other words, 6 words and 250 000 souls (all ages, both genders).
Average 40 000 souls per world.

50 years means that the elders remember the time they were in contact
with the main sphere of human civilization. Why did they leave? And
why are they not in contact any more (Not technically feasible? Not
affordable? Unrewarding? Those in power actively forbid conmtact and
are in position to enforce their wishes?)

Do non-human civilizations exist? (This is relevant for attitudes to
aliens)

> At this point, random explorers happen upon a lost colony. It's a
> standard lost colony, descended from an early colony mission that
> succeeded in depositing its colonists but failed to sustain a
> technological civilization.

A technological civilization? What are they then, instead?

In the centuries since, the colonists have
> gradually built a mature steady-state planetary economy, with
> centuries of accumulated capital

What does mature steady-state mean here? What are the centuries of
accumulated capital, if not technological?

and little inclination to spend it,
> although technology remains a good century behind that available to
> the more recent colonists.
>
What do you mean a good century behind? They had space travel
centuries ago, when the colony became lost.

> What happens next?
>
> The only thing preventing the worlds established by the recent colony
> mission from being satellitized would be some sort of political
> decision by both parties.

Why? Why not one party?

If the recent colony mission is in position to make and enforce
political decisions, then they are in position to decide unilaterally
not to become satellitized. The lost colony has no space travel and
therefore no means to satellitize the recent colony if they decide to
stop visiting.

If the two parties are going to create a
> joint economy, there is going to have to be some sort of trade and, as
> our contemporary world demonstrates, it is very difficult to sustain a
> free trade regime without labour mobility.
>
Our contemporary world has a number of countries which are unwilling
to enforce restrictions on labour mobility. We are not told whether
this is the case in space opera.

> The main advantage to the the older colony would probably be access to
> more advanced technology.

This, plus access to resources of six worlds.

The younger colony could profit from exports
> of their technology and perhaps objects like novelty goods, or some
> high-value-added products. Of particular interest might be the
> availability of easy credit.

Availability of credit depends on availability of enforcement. Which
is problematic in that setting.

Perhaps the newer colonies might have an
> economic profile a bit like that of the Baltic States, with cheap
> foreign credit subsidizing domestic consumption unsustainably?
>
> Is there anything I'm missing here?

You have a mature planetary economy, of a a few milliards of souls.
And you have a group of 250 000 people with access to a fair number of
technologies absent in the lost colony.

The newer colonies are going to have higher per head production and
standard of living. If you have 40 000 people with a whole world for
their own, they are going to pick the best and most pleasant places to
live and exploit, and save labour at the expense of wasting the cheap
resources of wilderness. Something which a mature steady-state
planetary economy cannot afford.

So, unlike the Baltic states, the new colonies start at higher living
standards. Somewhat comparable to 19th century USA, Canada, Argentina
or Australia. But unlike Europe, the lost colony does not have equal
technological level. So you can think at how USA and Australia related
to China, Japan and India. And Africa.

A mature steady-state planetary economy can afford to spend a lot on
people who are introducing new, eminently valuable and useful
technologies. For a colony of mere 250 000, the rewards of service are
considerably bigger than what they can extract from frontier by their
own labour. Cheap, labour intensive goods. And more direct
exploitation of humans - services, servants, women...